tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Rapid City via Chicago: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:28 MSP → 08:20 ORD
    AA 4803 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 52m · 88% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:40 ORD → 11:14 RAP
    AA 3766 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 34m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip5h 46mMSP 06:28 to RAP 11:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.