tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 77%

  1. 06:28 MSP → 08:20 ORD
    AA 4803 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 52m · 88% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 40m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 ORD → 14:38 JFK
    AA 4356 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 38m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 40m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 10mMSP 06:28 to JFK 14:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.