tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via New York: arrives on time 55%

  1. 05:15 RDU → 07:12 JFK
    AA 4805 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 56m · 92% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 18m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 JFK → 13:58 SFO
    AA 149 · American · 6h 25m · 60% on time, 3.7% cancelled

Total trip 11h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 153 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 18m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (3.7% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip11h 40mRDU 05:15 to SFO 13:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.