tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via New York: arrives on time 77%

  1. 05:15 RDU → 07:12 JFK
    AA 4805 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 56m · 92% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 18m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 09:30 JFK → 12:52 SFO
    AS 227 · Alaska · 6h 22m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 10h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 48 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 18m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip10h 37mRDU 05:15 to SFO 12:52, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.