tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 81%

  1. 05:15 RDU → 07:12 JFK
    AA 4805 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 56m · 92% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 59m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:11 JFK → 12:05 ORD
    AA 4365 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 54m · 89% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 134 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 59m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip7h 50mRDU 05:15 to ORD 12:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.