tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Nantucket via New York: arrives on time 52%

  1. 11:00 DCA → 12:18 JFK
    DL 5624 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 18m · 74% on time, 7.4% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 JFK → 14:39 ACK
    DL 5804 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 86% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (7.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip3h 39mDCA 11:00 to ACK 14:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.