tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Nashville via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 14:13 SDF → 16:30 LGA
    DL 5637 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 16m · 81% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:27 LGA → 19:19 BNA
    DL 5002 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 54m · 62% on time, 15.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (15.1% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 08mSDF 14:13 to BNA 19:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.