tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:18 TVC → 19:32 LGA
    DL 5638 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 76% on time, 18.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 LGA → 22:36 ORD
    DL 2806 · Delta · 2h 49m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (18.8% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 16mTVC 17:18 to ORD 22:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.