tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Atlanta via New York: arrives on time 36%

  1. 17:18 TVC → 19:32 LGA
    DL 5638 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 76% on time, 18.8% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 LGA → 23:43 ATL
    DL 975 · Delta · 3h 13m · 68% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (18.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 25mTVC 17:18 to ATL 23:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.