tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Detroit via Columbus: arrives on time 49%

  1. 15:45 JFK → 17:59 CMH
    DL 5650 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 71% on time, 15.8% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Columbus (CMH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:47 CMH → 20:02 DTW
    DL 3782 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 15m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (15.8% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 17mJFK 15:45 to DTW 20:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.