tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Dulles via New York: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:00 SDF → 08:15 LGA
    DL 5652 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 13m · 90% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 14m layover in New York (LGA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 10:29 LGA → 11:55 IAD
    UA 6242 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 26m · 82% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 14m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 55mSDF 06:00 to IAD 11:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.