tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Raleigh/Durham via Washington: arrives on time 25%

  1. 15:22 JFK → 16:59 DCA
    DL 5699 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 60% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:47 DCA → 19:21 RDU
    DL 5322 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 34m · 63% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip3h 59mJFK 15:22 to RDU 19:21, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.