tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Detroit via Washington: arrives on time 40%

  1. 14:45 LGA → 16:20 DCA
    DL 5709 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 61% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:29 DCA → 19:15 DTW
    DL 1454 · Delta · 1h 45m · 64% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 29mLGA 14:45 to DTW 19:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.