tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nantucket → Washington via New York: arrives on time 38%

  1. 12:06 ACK → 13:29 LGA
    DL 5712 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 23m · 66% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:45 LGA → 16:20 DCA
    DL 5709 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 61% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 14mACK 12:06 to DCA 16:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.