tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:00 DCA → 18:39 JFK
    DL 5713 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 7.2% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 JFK → 21:38 RDU
    DL 5103 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 13m · 73% on time, 8.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (7.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (8.4% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 38mDCA 17:00 to RDU 21:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.