tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Tampa via New York: arrives on time 54%

  1. 17:00 DCA → 18:39 JFK
    DL 5713 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 7.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 JFK → 23:23 TPA
    DL 1636 · Delta · 3h 24m · 76% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (7.2% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 23mDCA 17:00 to TPA 23:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.