tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Raleigh/Durham via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 19:20 LGA → 20:59 DCA
    DL 5724 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 50% on time, 10.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 DCA → 23:19 RDU
    DL 5428 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 17m · 60% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (10.9% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 02mLGA 19:20 to RDU 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.