tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Louisville via New York: arrives on time 36%

  1. 16:00 BOS → 17:30 LGA
    DL 5726 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 68% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 LGA → 20:58 SDF
    DL 5636 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 38m · 69% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 58mBOS 16:00 to SDF 20:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.