tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 21%

  1. 19:40 DCA → 21:00 LGA
    DL 5752 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 23m · 48% on time, 13.7% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:59 LGA → 23:32 BUF
    DL 5397 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 39m · 61% on time, 15.3% cancelled

Total trip 3h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (13.7% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (15.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip3h 58mDCA 19:40 to BUF 23:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.