tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Raleigh/Durham via New York: arrives on time 16%

  1. 17:40 DCA → 19:00 LGA
    DL 5763 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 23m · 51% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 LGA → 21:57 RDU
    DL 5442 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 07m · 56% on time, 25.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (25.6% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 17mDCA 17:40 to RDU 21:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.