tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Jacksonville via New York: arrives on time 35%

  1. 17:40 DCA → 19:00 LGA
    DL 5763 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 23m · 51% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 LGA → 23:11 JAX
    DL 5791 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 53m · 67% on time, 10.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (10.5% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 28mDCA 17:40 to JAX 23:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.