tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Rochester via New York: arrives on time 50%

  1. 08:15 DCA → 09:33 LGA
    DL 5772 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 18m · 81% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:19 LGA → 11:53 ROC
    DL 5340 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 34m · 81% on time, 7.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (7.9% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip3h 38mDCA 08:15 to ROC 11:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.