tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Detroit via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:05 BOS → 18:43 JFK
    DL 5814 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 66% on time, 8.9% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:29 JFK → 21:56 DTW
    DL 1253 · Delta · 2h 27m · 71% on time, 11.6% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.9% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (11.6% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 51mBOS 17:05 to DTW 21:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.