tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Washington via New York: arrives on time 44%

  1. 15:43 MVY → 17:03 LGA
    DL 5822 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 18m · 76% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 47m layover in New York (LGA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 19:50 LGA → 21:26 DCA
    AA 4719 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 36m · 64% on time, 21.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 77 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 47m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (21.4% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 43mMVY 15:43 to DCA 21:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.