tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Boston via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 15:43 MVY → 17:03 LGA
    DL 5822 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 18m · 76% on time, 5.5% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 LGA → 19:38 BOS
    DL 5738 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 65% on time, 9.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (5.5% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (9.1% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 55mMVY 15:43 to BOS 19:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.