tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Newark via Detroit: arrives on time 71%

  1. 07:50 SDF → 09:16 DTW
    DL 5824 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 90% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 DTW → 11:59 EWR
    DL 2577 · Delta · 1h 44m · 82% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 09mSDF 07:50 to EWR 11:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.