tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Detroit: arrives on time 78%

  1. 07:50 SDF → 09:16 DTW
    DL 5824 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 90% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 32m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:48 DTW → 13:55 PHX
    DL 813 · Delta · 4h 07m · 80% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 167 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 32m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip9h 05mSDF 07:50 to PHX 13:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.