tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 80%

  1. 07:50 SDF → 09:16 DTW
    DL 5824 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 26m · 90% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 DTW → 10:50 ORD
    DL 3673 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 35m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 00mSDF 07:50 to ORD 10:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.