tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 30%

  1. 17:05 CLT → 19:12 LGA
    DL 5828 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 06m · 60% on time, 12.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 LGA → 22:44 ILM
    DL 5204 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 14m · 62% on time, 10.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (12.7% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (10.5% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 39mCLT 17:05 to ILM 22:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.