tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:00 BOS → 19:31 LGA
    DL 5831 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 65% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 LGA → 22:44 ILM
    DL 5204 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 14m · 62% on time, 10.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (10.5% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 44mBOS 18:00 to ILM 22:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.