tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 23%

  1. 12:29 IAD → 13:58 JFK
    DL 5835 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 42% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 JFK → 17:11 ORD
    DL 4783 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 3h 11m · 74% on time, 23.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (23.6% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 42mIAD 12:29 to ORD 17:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.