tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Buffalo via New York: arrives on time 61%

  1. 12:29 IAD → 13:58 JFK
    DL 5835 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 42% on time, 9.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 31m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:29 JFK → 19:25 BUF
    DL 5250 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 57m · 74% on time, 8.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 166 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 31m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (9.1% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (8.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 57mIAD 12:29 to BUF 19:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.