tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 63%

  1. 07:00 MSN → 10:20 LGA
    DL 5847 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 91% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:30 LGA → 13:12 ORD
    DL 2240 · Delta · 2h 43m · 74% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip6h 13mMSN 07:00 to ORD 13:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.