tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Boston → Louisville via New York: arrives on time 38%

  1. 12:00 BOS → 13:18 LGA
    DL 5854 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 18m · 71% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 17m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:35 LGA → 17:11 SDF
    DL 4851 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 36m · 60% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 17m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 11mBOS 12:00 to SDF 17:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.