tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Washington via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:43 ORF → 20:25 JFK
    DL 5856 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 68% on time, 27.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 JFK → 22:59 DCA
    DL 5743 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 68% on time, 17.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (27.3% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (17.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 26mORF 18:43 to DCA 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.