tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Washington via New York: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:18 MVY → 14:32 JFK
    DL 5859 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 14m · 68% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:22 JFK → 16:59 DCA
    DL 5699 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 37m · 60% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip3h 41mMVY 13:18 to DCA 16:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.