Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 159 ALB 15:35 → BWI 16:55 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest WN 1159 ALB 18:00 → BWI 19:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 159 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 15:35	BWI 16:55	19%	4%	0.5%	67%
WN 173 Southwest	ALB 17:36	BWI 19:02	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1159 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 18:00	BWI 19:20	21%	4%	0.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON