Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:38 pm at Albany); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 179 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 19:15	MDW 20:41	20%	4%	0.2%	90%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	ALB 19:15	MDW 20:30	24%	3%	0.2%	61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ALB 18:00 → BWI 19:20WN 1159	3h 11m Baltimore	BWI 22:31 → MDW 23:46WN 1073	6h 46m	99%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ALB 17:00 → DEN 19:10WN 2252	1h 12m Denver	DEN 20:22 → MDW 23:46WN 3047	7h 46m	72%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON