tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:39 pm at Aspen); 5 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40% (calm day: 27%). Best bet: United via LAX, leaving 19:15, 56% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 19:15 → LAX 20:43UA 5940 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Los Angeles LAX 22:35 → ORD 04:51 +1UA 353 8h 36m 82% 56%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m Denver DEN 20:36 → ORD 00:03 +1UA 377 7h 38m 94% 55%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Denver DEN 21:05 → ORD 00:44 +1UA 2649 6h 34m 89% 54%
UnitedDetails → ASE 14:22 → DEN 15:35UA 5607 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m Denver DEN 19:30 → ORD 23:09UA 2085 7h 47m 86% 51%
AmericanDetails → ASE 14:21 → DFW 17:40AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 8h 18m 76% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ASE 18:12 → DEN 19:25UA 6011 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Denver DEN 20:36 → ORD 00:03 +1UA 377 4h 51m 49% 29%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 54m Denver DEN 19:17 → ORD 22:50UA 2258 4h 40m 33% 18%
AmericanDetails → ASE 14:21 → DFW 17:40AA 6384 · flown by SkyWest 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424 6h 01m 39% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON