Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:05 pm at Atlanta); 14 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 84%, against 43% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1335 at 22:59, 79%.

Nonstops today


DL 1335 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	AUS 00:18	79%	35%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	AUS 22:07	88%	34%	1.0%	60%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ATL 20:20 → STL 21:00WN 241	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → AUS 00:06 +1WN 2706	4h 46m	15%	5%
American Details →	ATL 20:24 → DFW 21:50AA 2403	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	4h 27m	22%	5%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON