Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1350 at 17:17, 58%.

Safest bet today DL 1350 ATL 17:17 → CLE 19:08 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 4036 ATL 18:53 → CLE 20:51 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Weather 65% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1350 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:17	CLE 19:08	58%	19%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
DL 1320 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	CLE 00:49	62%	17%	0.7%	79%worse than usual
DL 1339 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	CLE 21:45	63%	19%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
DL 2150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:53	CLE 20:43	67%	19%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
F9 4036 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:53	CLE 20:51	75%	49%	1.4%	59%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON