Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1459 at 22:03, 49%.

Safest bet today DL 1459 ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 1545 ATL 19:54 → CMH 21:33 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:03	CMH 23:40	49%	17%	0.3%	80%worse than usual
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:31	CMH 22:10	58%	20%	0.3%	74%worse than usual
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	62%	20%	0.3%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON