Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 75%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: YX 4735 at 20:38, 54%.

Safest bet today YX 4735 ATL 20:38 → DCA 22:48 · 54% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 977 ATL 19:01 → DCA 20:52 · 85% chance 15+ min late

Weather 75% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4735 Republic	ATL 20:38	DCA 22:48	54%	37%	0.9%	no record
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	68%	30%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
DL 378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:55	DCA 22:48	75%	38%	0.6%	66%worse than usual
AA 5560 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 19:54	DCA 22:00	75%	62%	1.5%	52%worse than usual
WN 4990 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 21:00	DCA 22:55	78%	44%	0.6%	35%worse than usual
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	79%	38%	0.6%	57%worse than usual
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	79%	37%	0.7%	60%worse than usual
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	81%	30%	0.7%	59%worse than usual
WN 977 Southwest	ATL 19:01	DCA 20:52	85%	44%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON