Today: DL 1341 at 12:43 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–56%.

Safest bet today DL 1341 ATL 12:43 → FLL 14:39 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest F9 3014 ATL 22:19 → FLL 00:18 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:43	FLL 14:39	30%	7%	0.4%	74%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	FLL 15:41	31%	8%	0.4%	73%
DL 1229 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	FLL 00:39	33%	9%	0.5%	69%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:39	FLL 18:40	36%	9%	0.5%	70%
DL 1107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:28	FLL 23:24	37%	8%	0.5%	62%
DL 1670 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	FLL 19:43	38%	9%	0.5%	63%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	FLL 17:23	39%	11%	0.5%	68%
F9 1124 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:35	FLL 14:38	39%	16%	1.1%	63%
DL 1489 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	FLL 21:56	40%	9%	0.5%	67%
B6 2097 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:49	FLL 14:40	42%	14%	0.6%	71%worse than usual
B6 1697 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 21:40	FLL 23:35	55%	23%	0.7%	45%
F9 2174 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:42	FLL 00:42	55%	27%	1.4%	60%worse than usual
F9 3014 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:19	FLL 00:18	56%	27%	1.3%	56%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON