Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1632 at 22:40, 45%.

Safest bet today DL 1632 ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:52 · 45% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 520 ATL 19:05 → JFK 21:32 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1632 Delta	ATL 22:40	JFK 00:52	45%	14%	0.5%	no record
DL 2398 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	JFK 21:29	48%	20%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
DL 2101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	JFK 23:09	49%	14%	0.4%	47%
DL 2378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:32	JFK 21:44	60%	19%	0.4%	70%worse than usual
B6 520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 19:05	JFK 21:32	61%	38%	1.0%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON