Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: DL 326 at 11:35, 26%.

Safest bet today DL 326 ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3215 ATL 15:15 → LAX 16:54 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 326 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:35	LAX 13:05	26%	4%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	33%	6%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	35%	8%	0.9%	68%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	38%	7%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
DL 1219 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:45	LAX 17:22	42%	6%	0.3%	77%worse than usual
DL 301 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:40	LAX 17:26	42%	7%	0.3%	69%worse than usual
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:50	LAX 20:37	43%	9%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	43%	7%	0.3%	77%worse than usual
AA 2221 American Flight history →	ATL 16:55	LAX 18:42	46%	11%	0.4%	67%worse than usual
DL 331 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	LAX 22:32	48%	10%	0.3%	72%worse than usual
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:15	LAX 16:54	56%	20%	1.0%	69%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	1h 15m Austin	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	6h 43m	89%	67%
Delta Details →	ATL 16:40 → LAS 17:52DL 711	1h 14m Las Vegas	LAS 19:06 → LAX 20:16DL 2288	6h 36m	77%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON