Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1386 at 14:50, 38%.

Safest bet today DL 1386 ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest F9 2272 ATL 18:31 → MIA 20:36 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	38%	11%	0.5%	63%
DL 1589 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MIA 00:55	38%	11%	0.8%	69%
DL 1234 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:37	MIA 23:39	45%	11%	0.9%	65%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 16:25	MIA 18:23	49%	12%	0.5%	no record
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	50%	15%	0.6%	66%worse than usual
DL 1631 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:09	MIA 19:25	51%	14%	0.6%	51%
AA 1367 American Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MIA 21:04	51%	22%	0.7%	30%
AA 1368 American Flight history →	ATL 18:55	MIA 20:59	52%	20%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:31	MIA 20:36	56%	27%	1.3%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON