Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2654 at 16:38, 60%.

Safest bet today DL 2654 ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest DL 1280 ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 64% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2654 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:38	MSP 18:18	60%	15%	0.3%	71%worse than usual
DL 1310 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MSP 00:39	63%	19%	0.4%	78%worse than usual
DL 1280 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	MSP 21:38	69%	16%	0.4%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON