Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 68%, against 32% on a calm day. Safest: DL 959 at 16:40, 65%.

Safest bet today DL 959 ATL 16:40 → PBI 18:36 · 65% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest DL 1606 ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22 · 69% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Weather 68% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 32% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 959 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	PBI 18:36	65%	23%	4.8%	74%worse than usual
DL 1065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	PBI 00:51	67%	20%	5.5%	71%worse than usual
DL 1058 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	PBI 20:51	69%	22%	4.8%	62%worse than usual
DL 1606 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:30	PBI 22:22	69%	19%	4.8%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON