Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1351 at 23:04, 40%.

Safest bet today DL 1351 ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 2583 ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 46% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1351 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	PIT 00:50	40%	9%	0.4%	80%worse than usual
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:56	PIT 18:42	46%	16%	0.4%	77%worse than usual
WN 743 Southwest	ATL 16:15	PIT 18:00	48%	11%	0.2%	no record
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:14	PIT 23:00	48%	10%	0.5%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON